Tuesday, February 26, 2008

AL North Season 7 Preview

Detroit is again the early favorite in the AL North having won this division four of the six seasons, along with two World Series titles in the process. Pawtucket, coming off a wild card season, will be the main competitor- just as they are each year. Meanwhile, Buffalo and Sioux Falls aren't too far behind the front-runners, but both teams will be hard pressed to compete for the division or the wild card in season 7.

Here are the team outlooks with last season's record, followed by projections for season 7 (teams listed in order of last season's finish):


Detroit EliteDetroitDucks

Payroll: $97.4M
(S6: 87-75, 1st place, beat Las Vegas in 1st Round, lost to Vancouver in Div Series; S7: 89-73, 1st place)

Key Additions: SP Peter Dong, 3B Bingo Flynn
Key Losses: 2B Jose Quixote, RP Geoffery Tunkel

The EliteDetroitDucks didn't make any significant changes this off-season and will aim to make a sixth playoff appearance in seven seasons. The addition of Peter Dong adds depth to a pitching staff that had plenty of it already. But while there are several possible starters, nobody has proven to be a true stopper. If Juan Barrios can cut down on the HRs allowed he may become that ace. The closer situation is a huge question mark, as Dwight Mullen will begin the season in that role.

Similar to their pitching, the Ducks' hitting is solid but won't wow you very often. The headliner is young 1B Reagan Basile, fresh off an insane .399 season. Right behind him is big swinging LF Reginald O'Brien.

The bats should give the pitching some fairly consistent run support, but that may not be enough to do much more than last season. The lack of superstars on the hill means Detroit will need at least four reliable pitchers to step up for the starting role. Despite that, the Ducks should be able to hold off Pawtucket this season and earn another division crown.

X-Factor: Detroit is hoping that season 6 acquisition Tony Concepcion can return to his all-star season 5 form. If so, he can provide protection for Basille and O'Brien giving this lineup another big threat.



Pawtucket Paw Paws
Payroll: $78M
(S6: 84-78, 2nd place, lost to Charlotte in 1st Round; S7: 85-77)

Key Additions: SP Hipolito Ordonez, RP Derrick Sauveur
Key Losses: SS/3B Giomar Rivas, SP Olmedo Perez

Ordonez joins a largely unknown rotation. He's a good young pitcher who will benefit from the solid Paw Paw defense that helps lower ERAs. Like Detroit, they have several possible starters but lack any big names. Pawtucket is counting on young Harry Diaz to show the potential that earned him a long-term contract this offseason, and return to a starter's role. The bullpen is filled with veterans who need to do just enough to pass the baton to closer Mitch Jenkins.

Pawtucket's hitters will give some consistent run support, but need to make up for the loss of Rivas with their young talent. All-Star 1B Eric Clifton and power hitting OF Valerio Contreras provide a potent middle of the order, but ultimately the success of this offense may rely on the production of the remaining 2/3 of the lineup.

Dealing Rivas and shopping Contreras screams "rebuilding year", but the Paw Paws still have the manpower to make another playoff run. The question is will they be willing to add an impact player come mid-season if they're in the playoff race. They have the parts right now to win the division, but probably not to make a deep run in the playoffs.

X-Factors: Management is counting on rookie 3B Jolbert Uribe to improve upon his already impressive stint in the bigs last season. They'll need him to help offset the loss of Rivas by adding some punch to the middle of this lineup.


Buffalo Chips
Payroll: $57.8M
(S6: 76-86, 3rd place; S7: 72-90, 4th place)

Key Additions: SP Ken Hafner
Key Losses: DH Pedro Beltre, 3B Benji Dixon

Buffalo may need pitching to carry them if they are to break the string of four straight sub-.500, 3rd place finishes. The Chips young rotation is led by 15-game winners Adam Ramsay and Larry White. If Harry Gandarillas can stay healthy, he'll make this a truly intimidating rotation. Hafner adds depth to a bullpen that has some holes, and with the young offense the relievers will be called upon in many late inning nail-biters.

The Chips' offense will cause Buffalo fans to be cautiously optimistic. They're starting two rookies and three more youngsters with only one year of big league ball, so expecting this lineup to break out this season may not be realistic. But they certainly have the potential to do some damage once they get acclimated to pro ball. After letting most of last season's regulars go, Sockless Joe (Shoeless' great nephew) is selling fans on the hope that they can put it together sooner rather than later. The only proven threat in the lineup is veteran DH Derek Adams. If they can find a way to score consistently, this team will turn some heads.

The season will prove difficult for the Chips to become contenders, as they'll need steady play from many unproven players. If they can keep the core of the pitching staff intact while this young offense develops, the Chips could be a couple moves away from making a deep playoff run. But if Buffalo is out of the race this year and the contenders come-a-calling with some tempting prospects, will they be able to resist? Looks like the young guys may answer that question as the season unfolds.

X-Factor: Leadoff hitter, and SS, Vince Simmons needs to get on base much more than last season to keep some ducks on the pond for the middle of the order. If he can improve on his power numbers from last year, expect to see him move to the 2- or 3-hole to give the lineup more punch.



Sioux Falls Canaries
Payroll: $73.9M
(S6: 71-91, 4th place; S7: 78-84, 3rd place)

Key Additions: LF Bubbles Richard, SP Harry Moya
Key Losses: RP Christopher Spencer

Gaheel is looking to stabilize a franchise that has been plagued by rotating ownership and five last place finishes out of six seasons. The Canaries bring back much of the same pitching staff that allowed the fourth least runs in the AL last season. Alex Bravo will head the rotation in only his second full season in the bigs, and Moya is a great addition to throw in this pitcher-friendly park. Sioux Falls will need last year's tough-luck 15-game loser Bucky Anderson to earn his huge contract by giving 200+ IP. There is a nice mix of veteran and young relievers. After a phenomenal season with 150+ IP coming out of the pen, Bey Hamilton will become the closer with the ability to pitch the eighth and ninth. They'll need to hold any leads this offense can provide.

How did a team with the fourth best pitching finish last in the division? Because Sioux Falls scored more runs than only two other AL teams. Unfortunately for Canaries' fans, not much has changed this off-season. There is speed at the top of the order, starting with one of the best names in the game, 2B Jose Jose, followed by Bruce Wells. Those two should get on, but the lineup lacks power. The big bat belongs to aging veteran DH Johan Faulkner, who needs to forget a disappointing season 6 for this team to succeed. The bench is not very deep, so the reliable vets must stay healthy.

With the Canaries' pitching and defense, they'll be in most games in the late innings. But to make a run at the playoffs, they desperately need some of their young position players to produce. Expect to see plenty of small ball, which Sioux Falls will need to use effectively to improve on a 14-24 record in 1-run games last season. A lot has to align for this team to get to the playoffs as is, so if they're close look to see Gaheel in trade talks looking for someone to drive in runs.

X-Factor: Acquired in the Spencer trade, new LF Bubbles Richard will be counted upon to be a big run producer at the heart of this lineup. As Faulkner ages his power will also slip, but he should still get on base. The table will be set, now Bubbles just needs to come through.

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